THE ARCTIC: THE "THIRD POLE" STRATEGY

Policy Brief

Umm E Amarah, Ambree Syed and Vaibhav

The Arctic: The "Third Pole" Strategy

Executive Summary  

India has pursued an orientation towards more engagement with the Northern Sea Route  (NSR) using the Chennai Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, serving as an important access  point potentially essential to offset reliance on the Suez Canal route in the long term. India  needs to diversify from its traditional dependence on the geopolitically vulnerable Red Sea, in  accordance with India’s Look East policy orientation.  

With increasing competition for influence from the great powers China and the United States,  it is crucial that India leverages its strategic autonomy in the region to safeguard its energy  and economic interests.  

There needs to be a focus on at least two areas of paramount importance. One is to develop,  through strategic investments, the operational Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor. Second is the  enhance the shipbuilding capacity of the India Ship to make the “Ice-class” to navigate  through the difficult waterways posed by the Northern Sea Route.  

Policy Problem  

India’s participation in the Arctic is scientifically restricted and leads to a strategic gap as the  Northern Sea Route (NSR) becomes a crucial channel of economic significance. As of April  2026, notwithstanding recent funding for maritime development, India does not have its  sovereign "Ice-Class" commercial shipping fleet and has become entirely dependent on  Russian and Chinese assets. This dependence leaves the country’s oil and natural gas imports  exposed to the whims of Western "shadow fleets" and high costs of insurance premium  payments due to the risks involved in using the Arctic passage.  

This imbalance is further compounded by the lack of a Polar Insurance Pool which is  required to mitigate risk and make Arctic shipping viable. Although India has launched a  “Bharat Marine Pool” for managing maritime risks in West Asia, it lacks a sovereign Polar  Shipping Insurance Pool. Hence, the Indian maritime community finds itself with "exclusion  clauses" provided by worldwide reinsurance firms making the NSR commercially non-viable.  Absent its own ice-breakers and shipping insurance system, India continues to be an  irrelevant spectator at an event where 37 million tons of goods transshipped in 2025 alone. 

Why It Matters  

The Arctic, or "Third Pole," is becoming increasingly important strategically for India in  terms of trade, geopolitics, and environment. Its impact on the Indian monsoon is the main  reason. Changes in global atmospheric circulation due to melting Arctic ice may create  uncertain monsoons and this affects agriculture and water security as well as millions of  Indian livelihoods. In addition to this, there is another significance to the Northern Sea Route  (NSR) which provides a faster pathway for trade between Asia and Europe as compared with traditional pathways like the Suez Canal. When goods are being moved by ship from Mumbai  to Rotterdam then sailing via the NSR could cut travel time by roughly 30 or even 40% so  that means less fuel cost more efficiency if not more than logistics infrastructure capabilities  are missing then India will lose out on what could become an evolving trade network.China  and Russia aren’t just watching the Arctic, they’re pouring money into ports, icebreakers, and  chasing oil. The region’s turning into a high-stakes arena for global power, and India risks  being left on the sidelines if it sticks to just playing the role of a quiet scientific observer. The  Arctic actually matters to India. It ties into India’s strategic interests, its environmental  security, and its economic future. Treating the Arctic like it’s far away and irrelevant is a  mistake. Ignoring it now could mess up India’s chances-and its strategy- for years to come.  

Evidence / Analysis  

The Global Climate Change has provided a scenario where the melting of Arctic Ice creates a  shorter route for maritime transit, reducing shipping costs in connecting the US, Europe, and  Russia to Northeast Asia. Arctic offers energy-importing nations like India access to untapped  hydrocarbon resources and minerals such as copper and phosphorus.  

Although India’s contact with the region dates back to the 1920s, the Svalbard Treaty, the  proper engagement and cooperation have only begun recently, since 2007, initially starting  due to a scientific drive for the exploration of the Arctic, it saw the establishment of the  International Arctic Research Base ‘Himadri’ in Svalbard. The ISRO (Indian Space Research  Organization) has been effective in providing navigation assistance to the Indian missions  conducted in the Arctic, bringing digital connectivity to remote areas. But it is crucial to note  that the expeditions India has conducted to the Arctic had to acquire Polar research Vehicles;  in this context, it is a matter of policy prioritization that India develops indigenous  technologies with domestic capabilities to combat over-reliance on the other nations for  India’s own exploration missions, in addition to enhancing economic integration for greater  trade.  

Despite joining the Arctic Council in 2013, India lacked a clear Arctic policy until 2022. The  Ministry of Earth Science detailed in its draft to create a concrete partnership with Arctic  states to ensure sustainable development. This approach is in view of the interdependence  existing between the Arctic, the Himalayan ranges, and the effects on monsoons in India.  

Looking into the Geoeconomic dimensions of the Northern Sea Route, there is a need to  develop crucial relationships with powers involved in the Arctic Circle. To the Russian and  Chinese states, it is a region of extreme economic importance, providing opportunities to  expand influence over the greater Eurasian landmass. Russia, being the state that has the  largest coastline in the Arctic, accounts for an area of 53% and has a population of 2 million  residing in the region, making more than half of the inhabitants in the Arctic region remains a  crucial partnership to pursue a strategic cooperation. The recent joint statements between  India and Russia have reiterated the commitment to developing the Chennai-Vladivostok  Maritime Route which creates the transit point for accessing the North Sea Route (NSR).  There is an effort to link the other ports of the Eastern coastline of India with this route,  creating synergy and a link between Chennai, Visakhapatnam, and Kolkata to the Russian  port of Vladivostok in the Russian Far East. This will offset the pressure on the International  North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), securing India’s LNG imports and sourcing long term crude oil contracts with Russia at favorable prices. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of  China has charted out its plan for greater economic and commercial integration in the region. 

Emerging as an important player in the Arctic Region, with major investments accounting for  about $10 billion in its pursuit of what Beijing terms the Polar Silk Road, developing major  projects such as the Yamal LNG pipeline and the Arctic LNG 2. This development poses a  significant challenge to India’s potential ambitions in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) region,  having to navigate through the South China Sea and East China Sea to reach Vladivostok.  India must counterbalance the potential threat of dominance of the Arctic and NSR shipping  lanes by deepening its relationship with Moscow through bilateral collaboration. This would  additionally decrease the overdependence Russia might have on China, creating more  avenues for cooperation. India needs to leverages this opportunity to increase its own  presence in the Arctic.  

Policy Recommendations  

Bharat Marine Pool (Arctic Wing): Institutionalize a new sovereign reinsurance wing to  distance itself from P&I “polar exclusion” clauses of western shipping companies. It would  guarantee that Indian energy supplies via NSR remain economically viable despite  geopolitical developments of 2026.  

Production Linked Incentives Scheme for Ice-Class Shipbuilding: Use the allocated $3 billion  budget for production incentives in building six Ice-Class 1A tankers. Transfer of technology  through Russian yards into domestic yards such as Cochin Shipyard should help develop  sovereign polar fleet independence by 2029.  

RELOS Activation: Create a Logistics Liaison Office in Vladivostok to facilitate coordination  for the “Chennai-NSR” route. It will provide necessary bunker stations for Indian ships  during the “long polar transit,” as well as safe harbors for repair works.  

Arctic Energy-Mineral Hub: Setup Overseas Asset Management Cell to transition into equity  ownership models. Investments in mid-stream Arctic refineries will enable 20% coverage of  India’s 2035 critical minerals requirement while simultaneously lowering dead-weight  logistic cost.  

“Arctic-South” Diplomacy: Initiate a Minilateral Arctic Dialogue with Brazil et al. Advocacy  of NSR as a “Global Commons” would give India the normative advantage in influencing  policy decisions within the Arctic Council and avoiding closed regional duopolies.  

Conclusion  

The shifting paradigm of the Arctic becoming a domain apart from remote, icy desolation to  an epic-enter of new economic opportunities and arena of geopolitical competition makes it  both a challenge and opportunity for India in the near future. But the country has made great  strides in scientific inquiry but must now develop broader ways of thinking about logistics, trade imperatives and international concern. Investments in Arctic capabilities and  engagement with a wide spectrum of stakeholders along the globe can bring considerable  dividends for India in protecting its own interest while also playing a role in sustainable  governance of the region. The choices made today will determine whether India plays a  meaningful role in the making of the “Third Pole” or remains an outlier in its unfolding  narrative. The Arctic is more than ice and remoteness; it lies at the crossroads of global  connectivity, climate stability and strategic equilibrium.

References  

Bisen, A. (2022). India’s Arctic Policy: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development.  Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.https://idsa.in/system/files/issuebrief/ib-india-arctic-policy-abisen-170322.pdf  

MEA. (2022, March 17). Union Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh releases India’s Arctic Policy in  New Delhi today. Government of India. https://www.mea.gov.in/pressreleases.htmdtl/34983/Union_Minister_Dr_Jitendra_Singh_releases_Indias_Arctic_Policy_in_New_Delhi_today  

Economics Times. (2026, April 11). Ministries meet to put a cover on ships in war zone. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/shipping-/-transport/ministries meet-to-put-a-cover-on-ships-in-warzone/articleshow/130184346.cms?from=mdr  

Hunter, T. S. (2023). Inadvertently connecting the first and third poles: the role of the  International North-South Transport Corridor in Arctic resource development and Russian  foreign policy. https://researchmanagement.mq.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/317550431/Publisher_version.pdf

Kanagavalli, S. (2023). Comparative analysis of the Arctic and the Third Pole region.  https://lauda.ulapland.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/65803/Kanagavalli_Suryanarayanan.pdf?seq uence=1 

Østhagen, A. (2024). Great power competition in the Arctic and the role of India. Strategic  Analysis, 48(6), 619-633.  https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09700161.2025.2450998 

Manini. (2025, March 10). Introducing the Arctic as a strategic geopolitical pillar for India.  Observer Research Foundation.  https://www.orfonline.org/research/introducing-the-arctic-as-a-strategic-geopolitical-pillar for-india  

Ministry of External Affairs. (2025, December 5). English translation of Prime Minister’s  press statement during joint press statement with the President of Russia [Press statement].  Government of India.

https://www.mea.gov.in/SpeechesStatements.htm?dtl/40408/English_Translation_of_Prime_Ministers_Press_Statement_during_Joint_Press_Statement_with_the_President_of_Russia_December_05_2025 

Suryanarayanan, K. (2022, April 12). Third Pole’s view on the North Pole – India’s Arctic  policy. Polar Connection.  https://polarconnection.org/third-pole-india-arctic-policy/

Ministry of Earth Sciences. (2022, March 17). Union Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh releases  India’s Arctic Policy in New Delhi today [Press release]. Press Information Bureau.  https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1806993